The European Commission’s 2015-2019 carbon leakage list uses a projected ETS price of €30 per EUA. This is highly unrealistic, with the Commission’s own research showing that €10 would be more reasonable, and the current ETS price of around €6. As such, the draft list includes far too many products which are not genuinely exposed to carbon leakage. This means too many free allowances will be handed out to industry, and Member States will miss out on €5 billion in auction revenues over the next few years. Parliament must demand the Commission uses a more realistic carbon price for calculation of carbon leakage.
Errata: The table in the version originally published did not include offsets in the cumulative balance of free allowances in 2013, making cumulative surpluses for each sector look lower than they actually are for that year. This has now been amended.