2020 surplus projection

download PDF

For the first time, Sandbag – alongside its “Annual State of the ETS” – launches a complementary report, “Forecasting the EU ETS to 2020”. Sandbag projects a 4.5 billion tonne surplus by 2020 – this is more than double the current 2.1bt surplus. This is far in excess of the European Commission’s 2020 forecast of 2.6bt, and illustrates how severely the EU ETS is in need of reform. The major difference from Sandbag’s forecast to forecasts by other analysts is its bearish outlook for emissions growth – in particular, due to the assumption of electricity consumption falling 1%/year.

This document is open for peer review to 14-Nov-2014. Sandbag makes as transparent as possible all assumptions and methodology. If you wish to discuss any aspect of this document, please contact us at [email protected]