Our latest and most accurate tool showing the breakdown of the Cap can be found here (xls file).
With the advance of the political negotiations on the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) and also the next phase of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), Sandbag has put together a video representing what the ETS cap might look like over the 2021-2030 period.
We assumed this EUA breakdown based on the current shape of the ETS Directive, the Council Conclusions of October 2014 and a small number of tentative assumptions. As the debate over the future of EU climate policy progresses, it is more important than ever to understand how the various terms used in these intricate discussions relate to each other. The video walks the viewer through Sandbag's interpretation about how different emissions allowance pots will fit together, both within the post-2020 period and relative to the still ongoing Phase 3.
We hope this will stimulate a discussion about how this new structure of the cap can best be made to work in favour of an Emissions Trading Scheme which actually acts to drive emissions reductions and low-carbon investment. We have looked at the 2021-2030 period given the Climate & Energy package rests its targets in 2030, but we recommend that Phase 4 of the ETS only run for five years, given the inflexibility of the current Phase, which runs for eight years, and so uses growth and emissions forecasts which are dangerously out of date.